‘In The Loop’ At New Hampshire Motor Speedway

Jeff Gordon, Tony Stewart and Matt Kenseth have combined for seven NASCAR Sprint Cup Series championships.
They’ve also combined for zero wins in 2008. According to the statistics, the “slump” will be busted sooner than later.
All three are either strong at this weekend’s track, New Hampshire Motor Speedway, or over the 10-race Race to the Chase. Below is a rundown of the three drivers, and their chances of victory:

Tony Stewart

Of the three, Stewart has the least to worry about. He is a notorious late bloomer. In seven of his nine NASCAR Sprint Cup Series seasons, it took Stewart until after race No. 10 for his first victory (2002 and 2006).

Last season, it took him until race No. 19 at Chicagoland to capture his first win. His stats suggest this season’s first victory may come two races earlier – this weekend at New Hampshire, race No. 17.

His statistics there are phenomenal. Over the past six races, Stewart has a win, two runner-up finishes and a third-place finish. Below is Stewart’s race-by-race log over the last six races at New Hampshire Motor Speedway, the site of Sunday’s LENOX Industrial Tools 301 (all driver race logs can be seen at NASCARMedia.com):

Stewart at New Hampshire Motor Speedway
Date Finish ARP FLR LT15% DR
7/05 1 2.2 80 100% 149.2
9/05 2 2.9 71 97.7% 143
7/06 37 29.2 8 29.2% 89.9
9/06 2 9.2 9 85.3% 109.5
7/07 12 10.4 5 87.0% 92.9
9/07 3 3.7 16 99.3% 122.8
Total 9.5 9.6 189 82.9% 117.9
ARP: Average Running Position
FLR: Fastest Laps Run
LT15: Percentage of Laps in the Top 15
DR: Driver Rating

But if a victory doesn’t happen this weekend for Stewart, it very well could happen before the Chase begins.

At the upcoming 10 tracks in the Race to the Chase – the 10 races prior to the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup – Stewart has 18 career wins, 59 top fives and 91 top 10s. And over the last three seasons, Stewart has series-best numbers in Driver Rating (107.2), Average Running Position (10.5) and Laps in the Top 15 percentage (76.2%).

Jeff Gordon

Like Stewart, Gordon excels at New Hampshire and has strong numbers at the Race to the Chase tracks.
Over the last three races at NHMS, Gordon has done just about everything but win. He finished second in both 2007 NHMS races, and third in the second race of 2006. Check out his numbers during that span:

Gordon at New Hampshire Motor Speedway
Date Finish ARP FLR LT15% DR
9/06 3 3.5 49 98.7% 125.1
7/07 2 4.1 38 97.3% 125
9/07 2 5.5 40 93.0% 119.8
Total 2.3 4.4 127 96.3% 123.3

Over the next 10 tracks, Gordon has a Driver Rating of 96.3 and an Average Running Position of 11.8 since 2005.

Matt Kenseth

Even without a Victory Lane trip, Kenseth is the hottest driver in the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series right now. Over the last six races – all top-10 finishes – he has tallied more points than any other driver (934). And over the next 10 tracks, only Stewart boasts better numbers.

Over the last three seasons, Kenseth has a Driver Rating of 98.2 and Laps in the Top 15 percentage of 73.8% during the Race to the Chase. Both figures are second-best in the series.